Full analysis of the real estate market in Sofia in the first half of 2025.

Introduction

This analysis presents a realistic picture of the Sofia real estate market, based on key demographic and economic trends, as well as specific data from transactions concluded in the first and second quarters of 2025.

1. Demography and internal migration

• Sofia's population officially exceeds 1.28 million people, but they actually live over 1.6 million. due to unregistered residents.
• Reasons: access to jobs, education, healthcare and services.
• This puts pressure on:
  • the housing stock;
  • urban infrastructure;
  • transport and kindergartens.
• A large part of newcomers live in rented accommodation in the grey sector – strong incentive to buy own home.

2. Minimum wage and regional pressure

• In 2025, the minimum wage reached 1,000 BGN.
  • Increased purchasing power;
  • But also increased costs for business.
• Sofia absorbs this growth more easily.
• In other regions (especially Northwestern and Southeastern Bulgaria) this leads to:
  • closure of small businesses;
  • migration to the capital.
• Consequence: centralization of demand and economic dependence on Sofia.

3. The housing market in Sofia

• Great price diversification: from 1,200 to 3,300 €/m², according to location and quality.
• Price increase:
  • +16% per year for Q2 2024;
  • +20% in new construction.
• Over 60% from transactions have a mortgage.
• The search is driven by:
  • young families;
  • IT specialists;
  • investors;
  • unregistered residents seeking long-term accommodation.

4. Property affordability (2023–2028)

Chart: number of annual salaries needed to purchase an 80 m² apartment

Reasons for deterioration:

• Property prices are growing faster than wages;
• Increased demand, limited supply;
• Population concentration and market activity in Sofia;
• Shortage of land for new construction.

Conclusion:

Accessibility is getting worse. This requires:

• more financial advice;
• more flexible sales models;
• focus on liquid properties;
• implementation of social housing policies.

Conclusions and recommendations

• Sofia will continue to grow and concentrate the demand for housing.
• Deals in spring 2024 show sustained interest in purchasing in early stages of construction.
• For agencies and investors:
  • follow unregulated search – it drives the market;
  • offer value, not just space;
  • combine data, experience and insight.

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